A01. Investigating the human interaction effects on water cycles

Title

Investigating the human interaction effects on water cycles

Authors

Xiaoying Shi Katherine Calvin (Unlicensed) Andrew D. Jones Ben Bond-Lamberty Peter Thornton Alan Di Vittorio

Abstract

In the traditional asynchronous approach, human system information required as forcing for climate prediction is generated in advance by economic integrated assessment models (IAMs) that include both energy and agricultural sectors. An integrated Earth System Model (iESM), which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and community Earth System Model together, was recently developed (Collins et al. 2015; Thornton et al., 2017). It provides a tremendous opportunity for modeling experiments to examine interactions between the human and natural systems, which is a synchronous approach for climate change projection. A bundle of experiments was conducted using the iESM under the RCP8.5 scenario to explore the radiative and physiological effects of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and Earth-human interactions in the context of future hydrological projections. We found that CO₂ concentration has significant effects on the hydrological cycle by modulating the evapotranspiration of the plant and soil system. Considering the Earth and human system interactions also has significant impacts on future water cycle through interactive land use and land cover change, greenhouse gas emissions and so on. On the basis of these results, we address the importance of using more integrated modeling system to project the Earth environmental change.