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Abstract

Sea-level rise from shrinking glaciers and ice sheets is increasing. Observed acceleration in the rate of contribution from Greenland and Antarctica Antarctic ice sheets is a concern, particularly for West Antarctica where the ice sheet’s geometric configuration is might be unstable to small perturbations.

ProSPect addresses goal is to address the limitations of the DOE ice sheet model and Earth system model limitations that prevent accurate sea-level projections. Focus areas include (1) missing or inadequate model physics, (2) missing ISM and ESM coupling, (3) coupled ISM and ESM initialization methods, and (4) probabilistic models (inadequate or missing physics, couplings, model initialization, validation and uncertainty quantification) that prevent accurate sea-level projections.

In this poster we present recent efforts in (1) model initialization performed solving an optimization problem constrained by the ice sheet flow model and observations, (2) Verification and Validation through the development of the Land Ice V&V toolkit (LIVVkit), (3) Uncertainty Quantification study obtained performing an approximated Bayesian inference problem followed by forward simulations of posterior samples.

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