Abstract | The High-Latitude Application and Testing of Earth System Models (HiLAT) Science Focus Area (SFA) and the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) projects have teamed up (hereafter called as HiLAT-RASM) to study exchanges and feedbacks that contribute to Arctic Amplification (AA). AA is strongly modulated by powerful feedbacks between Earth system components that either amplify or attenuate the continued warming. Credible projections of future Arctic change require a quantitative understanding of these feedbacks and their accurate representation in Earth system models (ESMs). The HiLAT-RASM Phase III aims to fill in knowledge gaps and improve the representation of important feedbacks in ESMs. The overall goal of the project is to: understand, quantify, compare, and—when feasible—improve the model representation of complex, multi-component feedbacks that modulate the amplified response of the Arctic Earth system to external forcing at time scales from seasonal to decadal. In particular, the project aims to improve our ability to accurately project future Arctic changes by developing a unifying framework to understand, quantify, and compare complex Earth system feedbacks that modulate AA and to improve their representation in Earth system models. The framework is designed to unify feedbacks across two dimensions. First, the project aims to explore feedbacks from a wide range of processes represented by three Science Areas (SAs), from meridional exchanges of heat and moisture, through complex regional feedbacks between the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere, to complex physical and biogeochemical interactions and feedbacks between the terrestrial, aquatic, and marine domains. Second, it will investigate feedbacks across models with a range of complexities represented by three Capability Areas (CAs), from broad-ranging multi-model examination in the CMIP6 ensemble, through detailed investigation in our highly resolved models E3SM-Arctic and RASM, to interpretable, data-driven, machine learning-assisted reduced-order models. In addition to an overview of the project, this poster will present the latest results from E3SM and RASM model simulations of relevance to the larger E3SM community. |
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