Presenter: Alan Di Vittorio, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Title: Human-Earth Feedbacks with E3SM-GCAM

Abstract: 

Understanding the co-evolution of human and Earth systems is critical for assessing the efficacy of potential climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. The current modeling paradigm uses human system projections in a world unaffected by climate change to drive Earth system projections of climate change. In reality, human systems are continually responding to climate-driven changes in terrestrial productivity, temperature, water availability, extreme climate events, etc. Feeding such impacts back into the human system model enables human systems to respond to changing conditions in addition to prescribed socio-economics and policies. This provides a more realistic evolution of the combined human-Earth system under climate change and enables analyses of the feedbacks themselves in addition to more complete assessment of alternative climate adaptation/mitigation scenarios. We are implementing a human component in E3SM that enables two-way feedbacks between human and Earth systems. This novel infrastructure allows for future advancement of human-Earth interactions in E3SM through individual component updates and a supported coupling mechanism to facilitate the addition of new feedbacks between the human and other E3SM components. The Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) is currently implemented as the human system model in E3SM and uses run-time ELM terrestrial productivity to provide updated land use and CO2 emissions to E3SM at 5-year intervals. This terrestrial productivity feedback adjusts agriculture yields and potential land carbon densities in GCAM, which in turn alters the projected scenario to account for ongoing climate change. The Earth system responds differently to the altered scenario than to the original scenario that does not include terrestrial feedbacks. We are testing this new system with land-only runs and are working toward including a prognostic atmosphere. The human component will be included in E3SMv3, making E3SM unique among Earth system models.

Date 21 Sep 2023 

Time

• PT: 8:30 am
• ET: 11:30 am

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Attendees

• Mark Petersen
• Wuyin Lin
• Jon Wolfe