OP-E2.3 E-PRIME
| Poster Title | To Develop E-PRIME: A First Look at Connecting Climate Models to Energy Impacts. |
|---|---|
| Authors | Deeksha Rastogi, James Scott Holladay, Katherine J. Evans, Joe Kennedy, Ben L. Preston, Kate Calvin, Moetasim Ashfaq |
| First Author | Deeksha Rastogi |
| Session Type | E3SM/Integrated Session |
| Session ID | E2 |
| Submission Type | Presentation |
| Group | |
| Experiment | |
| Poster Link |
Abstract
To Develop E-PRIME: A First Look at Connecting Climate Models to Energy Impacts.
Deeksha Rastogi*12, James Scott Holladay3, Katherine J. Evans12, Joe Kennedy1, Ben L. Preston4, Kate Calvin5, Moetasim Ashfaq12
1Computational Science and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN
2The Bredesen Center, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
3Department of Economics, Haslam College of Business, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
4RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA
5Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Contact: (rastogid@ornl.gov)
BER Program: ESM
Project: E3SM
Project Website: N/A
Abstract:
An increasing focus for E3SM version 3 is to develop and execute model configurations that focus on a diversity of human dimensions. However, the scope of information and the span of stakeholders for this capability requires a hierarchy of model construction, analyses, and assessments, all of which must be validated and understood. As a first step in addressing these needs, E3SM staff have been evaluating previously available models and next turn to v1 E3SM simulations.
Using a highly-resolved ensemble of CMIP5 climate simulations and empirical relationships between weather and household energy consumption, we provide one of the most detailed estimates to date for potential changes in the United States residential energy demand under the highest greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Our results indicate that more intense and prolonged warm conditions will drive an increase in electricity demand while a shorter and milder cold season will reduce natural gas demand by the mid 21st century. The environmental conditions that favor more cooling-degree days in summer and reduced heating-degree days in winter are driven by changes in daily maximum temperatures and daily minimum temperatures in the respective seasons. The projected changes exhibit impactful regional variations, with a net increase in energy cost in relatively warmer counties in the south and net decrease in energy cost in the counties across the United States that currently experience significant cold season. These projected changes in energy demand and cost have implications for future energy planning and cost management.
From this baseline study, we are leveraging EVE and LIVVkit tools to develop a diagnostics suite, E-PRIME, for E3SM simulations with a host of IAV community prioritized metrics of the hydrology cycle, including extremes and moisture tracking, later to be extended to include agriculture, ground transportation etc.