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Title
Understanding Monsoonal Water Cycle Changes in a Warmer Climate in E3SMv1 Using a Normalized Gross Moist Stability Framework
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One of the challenges of climate science is understanding how warming will change monsoon rainfall. A promising path forward links the transport of energy to the transport of water vapor. This link, termed the normalized gross moist stability (NGMS), can be used to fingerprint monsoon rainfall changes coming from different energy sources as well as changes to NGMS itself. A fingerprint of the Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall response to warming is made for a general circulation model, which highlights the importance of the NGMS term for understanding the monsoon rainfall response to warming. By examining this NGMS term more carefully, evidence is shown for the importance of the ocean circulation toward explaining the monsoon rainfall response to warming. Further analysis of the NGMS term also suggests that the traditional time-mean view of the monsoon is insufficient to explain its response to warming. The response of NGMS to warming is shown to be sensitive to the relative humidity of the atmosphere.
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